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Monthly Archives: May 2016

American-Flag1All things are possible and that is why you run the race.  Unfortunately, the odds of Bernie Sanders overtaking Hillary Clinton of the Democrat party  nomination are slightly higher than a third party candidate acquiring two-hundred seventy electoral votes and defeating both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton (or Bernie Sanders).

Teddy Roosevelt was one of the greatest presidents in the history of the United States.  After choosing to yield to William Howard Taft in 1908 by not running for re-election, then disappointed in Mr. Taft, created the Bull-Moose party in 1912 attempting to regain the White House.  The result was splitting the Republican vote between Roosevelt and Taft allowing Woodrow Wilson (D) to have a plurality of the popular vote and the required number of electoral votes in the then forty-eight state union to become president.  Seems to me if Teddy couldn’t do it, nobody can.

Continuing on that train of thought with respect to the Electoral College, even if this third party does endear enough voters disgusted with both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump and actually win a majority of the popular vote, it is the electoral vote tally that counts.  As rare as it is for a U.S. president to get elected without winning the popular vote, it has happened.  Examples include John Quincy Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes (his fraudulency), Benjamin Harrison, and George W. Bush.  If the bible-belt and Dixie are going to go predictably red while California and the northeast predictably blue, that leaves a small number of states with a small electorate where the third party candidate has a slim chance of winning a majority and picking up the EVs; two-hundred seventy is still not practical.

The only back door to a third party winning the presidency under the current system is for the third party candidate to pick up some electoral votes and prevent either Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton from achieving two-hundred seventy sending the election to the House of Representatives.  Only once in the history of this country has the HR selected a president and that was a different set of circumstances.  In 1800, Democratic-Republican candidates Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr defeated Federalist candidate John Adams and a few also ran.  Back then, there was no ticket with a president and vice president and the vice presidency went to the candidate who finished in second place (John Adams, the second president served as George Washington’s VP and Thomas Jefferson, the third president served under John Adams).  The HR needed to break a deadlock to determine between Jefferson and Burr who would be president and who would be vice president; of course it was Jefferson.  The HR has never selected a president across party lines in the nation’s history.  In addition, if it were to happen that way, it would be postponed until after January 3rd when the new congress is sworn in and the new HR would be selecting.  If the Democrats regain control of the House, it will most-likely go to Hillary Clinton albeit it is not the best of four-hundred thirty-five, but each state must agree on one vote for the best of fifty states.  The Republicans would have to keep control of the House and there would have to be enough anti-Trump Republican congressmen and moreover, enough anti-Trump red states involved in the process.  I won’t say your chances of winning Powerball are better, but your chances of betting on the horse with the worst odds, i.e. the greatest long-shot, in the fifth at Belmont are greater than betting on this scenario and betting on a third-party president sworn in on January 20, 2017.

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American-Flag1Alexis de Tocqueville, a French philosopher made this statement in 1840 in his work Democracy in America.  The words reign loud and true today as America will celebrate its two-hundred fortieth birthday this July 4.  Reviving de Tocqueville is a reflex response to the Trump candidacy and his slogan Make America Great Again.  The problem is Donald Trump does not understand the origin of America’s greatness.

Let me begin by saying The United States of America was never a great nation according to the worldly definition which is more suitable towards the great empires that reigned eons before the U.S.A. was a gleam in anyone’s eyes.  George Washington, our first president, professed isolationism and no permanent alliances.  He was not wrong in the late eighteenth century, it is just that the world changed a lot since then forcing us to compete economically and defend against modern day tyrants with long range and nuclear weapons.  We are the greatest country in the world because we no other is any better.  This is not to say we are the only good nation; no nation is any better because no nation is any freer.  Freedom is our most precious commodity and the tyrannical Donald Trump will take a good portion of it away.  He wants to rewrite the First Amendment guaranteeing us free speech, freedom of religion, freedom of the press, and the right to petition and assemble.  I have been a Republican conservative since I was old enough to vote but I cannot support Donald J. Trump.

Talk show host Sean Hannity acknowledges how people like me feel about Trump but swears up and down we would feel the same way about Ted Cruz.  Not so.  Cruz is a constitutionalist and would have made executive decisions only if they would be constitutional.  You could argue he is a different type of insurgence, but he is who he is and would allow the establishment to continue to be the establishment and the onus would be on him to sell his ideas.  Trump is a very different beast who has never held public office in his life.  His appeal is that he is not a career politician; he is a beast far worse.  Many of my fellow Republicans did not take his candidacy seriously and were sure he would ride off into the sunset and someone else, Cruz, Rubio, or Kasich would be in slot one.  Now that Mr. Trump is the presumptive nominee, the Republican Party is fighting for its conservative life, facing an unwelcomed overhaul with Trump being the new establishment.  For now, establishment and grassroots Republicans are taking a very reserved approach to supporting him and I hope they hold their ground.  But the Republican Party dilemma is not the worst of it; American Democracy is fighting for its life.  It is beyond the dangers of socialism and left-wing politics.  It is beyond Hillary Clinton’s emails and Benghazi and the war on ISIS.  It is beyond whether to clear the way for Merrick Garland to be confirmed to replace the late Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court or let the new president select.  It is about whether or not we will maintain our fundamental freedoms and continue to foster a government of the people, by the people, and for the people.

I am not prepared to answer as to whether I will bite the bullet and vote for Hillary Clinton and hope conservatism can be reborn four years later, or do a write-in in protest of the two choices.  I will definitely show up at the polls on election day in November to vote the congressional ballot and in so far as writing in a name of a person with no assigned set of electors in the state is no different from writing in Mickey Mouse, I probably will not leave the first column (President) blank.  My penultimate admonishment is whatever you do, don’t sell out to Trump.

 

Republican ElephantMy fellow Americans, May 4, 2016, a day that will live in infamy with respect to American Democracy, has seen and experienced the cataclysmic fall of the nation’s most powerful and influential conservative voice, a voice spoken softly and echoed loudly in its finest Americans like Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, and Ronald Reagan; the half of our two-party system affectionately known as the Grand Old Party.

Perhaps a fitting tribute as the Ringling Brothers Circus, the largest traveling circus in the United States, is going to stop using elephants to support a more humane treatment of our long-nosed pachyderm friends, the party symbolized by the red, white, and blue elephant first introduced by cartoonist Thomas Nast has lost its establishment base and is now symbolized by the orange comb-over of the odious and irreprehensible Donald J. Trump.

Both Ted Cruz and John Kasich have bailed within twenty-four hours of Trump’s victory in Indiana.  Now we can only turn to our rivals on the liberal side to defeat this neo-fascist and save our republic.  In chess, it is referred to as a gambit, when you sacrifice a power piece, a bishop, a rook, or your queen for better board position or to free up a square to checkmate the opponent.  In order for the Republican Party to be re-established as both the conservative party and a dominant force in American politics supporting the ideology needed to bring back opportunities and the American Dream, it must sacrifice the 2016 presidential election, allow Hillary to have her day in the sun as the first woman president, and pray for the nation and the Republican Party that it can be both viable and integral in the next decade.

This drastically reduces our margin for error and success as I believe the next ten years (2016 – 2025) is America’s Last Stand.  Though Bernie Sanders will be retired from public life, his socialist utopia albeit not the kind of socialism one hash mark right of communism will become reality in America by 2025 with no external forces to prevent it.  With the political continuum circular and both radicals and radical rightists meeting at the one fringe at the back of the circle, Trump fascism is not the answer and Trump is a tyrant who will stop at noting even to defy the Constitution and so many supporters wanting him to do whatever it takes to fix America (i.e. turn it into his Hell on Earth), an Article V Convention of States cannot be dismissed to propose an new constitution which may not contain our inalienable rights.  If you want to preserve free enterprise, states’ rights, a land of opportunity not entitlements, and above all, a government of the people, by the people, and for the people, we need a real honest a God Republican conservative in the spirit of Ronald Reagan (not Donald Trump) in 2020.  We are on a shaky precipice and our only viable move is a gambit.

The Republican establishment is dead and needs to be reborn in the spirit of Ronald Reagan, Barry Goldwater, and the grass-roots working class citizens (typically Democrats) who in 1980, voted Republican for a change as the slogan went.  Donald J. Trump is NOT a Republican; he is a fascist wearing a Republican suit.  The Republican Party now must shift to rebuilding the conservative voice and restoring to its lofty status as the party of the people who believe America was established to be the greatest country in the world; because in order to be the greatest again, it needs the people in the party who understand.