Trump–Remember Dewey in 48?

Republican ElephantLike my fellow conservatives representing the Republican establishment, which is apparently now on the endangered species list, Trumps very significant lead in all the polls is a major concern.  Our faction’s unofficial spokesman, Ted Cruz has announced, pleading with Iowans and New Hampshire-ites to vote for him, that if Trump takes both Iowa and New Hampshire, he will be virtually unstoppable.  Though it is too early for a Connecticut-ite to endorse a candidate with an April 26 primary, I can state that if only Trump and Cruz are on the ballot in the Nutmeg State, I would vote for Cruz both to “try” to stop Trump and to preserve the Republican establishment and conservative base.  I give you disclaimer that this post is theory not fact, but I have reason to believe that the Trump balloon may have sprung a leak.

Disgruntled with Fox News’s Megan Kelly, a woman reporter of whom Trump made into one of his sworn enemy, The Donald plans to boycott the next debate.  Making a stark statement that he could shoot a man on 5th Avenue in New York and not lose a single vote, Trump believes he is invincible in his quest for the presidency.  But this could be a critical turning point for The Donald.

I learned a long time ago that the most fundamental form of insanity sane people are guilty of is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.  Any time you plant corn seed, you grow corn—consistently.  No one to date has grown watermelon from corn seed.  This is where his decision to stop debating could be a harbinger that Donald Trump is in the early stages of Dewey Fever.

During the 1948 general election between incumbent President Harry S. Truman (D) and New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey (R), all pundits and newsmen in their day predicted The next president of the United States, Tom Dewey!  Many newspapers in that era printed morning and evening editions and the Tuesday evening editions had the front page headline reading DEWEY WINS or DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN.  Mr. Dewey went to bed that night believing he was president-elect and dreamt of his inauguration on 01/20/1948; an event which never happened.  Harry Truman was re-elected after all, and the media of its day had enough egg on its face to supply Denny’s with various omelets and Grand Slam Breakfasts for the next six months.  Pundits of the day spent countless hours figuring out how this happened.  Some attributed it to Stom Thurman’s American Party (independent or Bull-Moose of the day) splitting the Republican conservative vote.  Final results showed Thurman as a quintessential also ran although he did get electoral votes in two southern states.  Some say his moustache did him.  It was common practice for the Democrat party to target cities, urban working class, and for Republicans, knowing they had the very wealthy in their pockets, targeting small towns and rural farming communities.  Rural dwellers, farmers or otherwise, associated his moustache with the city-slicker images.  In 1948, small rural towns generally voted on paper ballots marking X’s for the candidate of their choice so those were the last tallied.  But in the final analysis, the underlying cause for the failed Dewey campaign was with all the polls and pundits siding with him, all but sure he was inevitably going to win hands down, Mr. Dewey just stopped campaigning.  Relaxed and took it easy till election day.  Harry Truman went across the nation by train dubbing his whistle stop campaign leaving lasting message on various voters including rural and swing voters and Dewey blew it on the first Wednesday after the first Tuesday in November.

Do not hold your breath for Donald Trump to stop campaigning, but to stop debating, a key activity on the eve of the caucuses and primaries, may be the stifling stab Republican Trump opponents were waiting to come.  If Ted Cruz can now put his campaign and his debating skills into hyper-drive, the expectations in both the Hawkeye and Granite States can turn on a dime.  And it just may jar the memories of the Republican establishment and send a message to youth Republicans that Trump is not the man that stands for the party’s value and ideals.

Fellow Republicans, the time to act is now!


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