Decision 2014 Post Mortem

American-Flag1I did not call the governor’s race in Connecticut right—incumbent Dannel Malloy gets second term—close as they come, 50% to 49%.  Republicans get majority in Senate—53-47 and it may grow as some states have runoffs.  Did not get the 60-senator filibuster-proof senate and without 67 senators, cannot override Obama’s vetoes.

At first, I thought it was a wave election.  I thought the majorities in each house would flip-flop based on the anti-incumbent sentiment.  But although both majorities are small, Republicans have majority in both houses; just not enough in either to break gridlock and override vetoes.  Barring the runoffs result in enlarging the majority, Washington will most-likely be stuck in neutral for the next two years.  The election was a referendum on Obama’s policies over the last six years and the majority spoke out against Obama policy.

At the federal level, it is time to look ahead to 2016; a presidential election where there will be no incumbent.  Democrats will be focusing on Hilary and Republicans will be looking at their now two-faction party; the grass roots Republicans and the Tea Party.  If a tea-bagger is not the nominee, I fear a three-man race with a Tea Party Third Party candidate.  The far right voting for that candidate will effectively be voting for Hilary as the Republican vote will be split in half allowing Hilary to get elected president with as little as 34% of the vote.  The Republicans will need a superstar to get back The White House in 2016.  Meanwhile, the legislative and executive branches must find a way to effectively govern.

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