Showdown in Iowa

Let the games begin!  By a longtime tradition, Iowans will now begin the process of which the Republican Party will choose a challenger for incumbent President Barrack Obama.  It looks like Mitt Romney and Ron Paul currently have the edge as Newt Gingrich has dropped to fifth place.  Rick Santorum, third place but not a commanding third with about 12%, may play a significant role as the spoiler for Gingrich or one of the two front-runners.  Camptown Racetrack’s five miles long, doo da, do da…

If I had to call it, I would give it to the Ron Paul revolution.  He is a solid debater and although there is more too him than what gets disclosed in televised debates, he speaks like the voice of reason and can lure voters his way.  Let’s not lose site of the fact that Iowa seldom determines the final result.  Bob Dole in 1988 and Mike Huckabee in 2008 are two examples of Iowa winners that were not nominated to run for the nation’s highest office.  Jon Huntsman is not even on the ballot in Iowa, he is betting the house on New Hampshire on March 1st.  With nothing in between January 3rd and March 1st, I would expect more debates and attacks.

In an attempt to be a harbinger for March 1st in the Granite State, I would give that one to Mitt Romney.  New England Republicans are generally removed from the ultra-conservative Tea Party Republicans and tend to go with a more moderate.  In addition, Romney is a native New Englander serving the commonwealth of Massachusetts, a state that seldom rolls out the red carpet for Republicans.

Michelle Bachmann will probably be one of the first to be eliminated, however right now, I see her as the most viable candidate for Vice President.  First of all, if a more moderate gets the nod, the Tea Party faction will be represented on the ticket.  Second, it is a powerful strategy for the Republican Party with Obama considering switching from Joe Biden to Hilary Clinton, who could attract women voters interested in making history.  With a woman on both tickets, conservative women will not defect just to make history and the election in November will be decided on political philosophy and an assessment of Obama’s ability to lead and get America back to work.  Let the games begin!

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