American-Flag1I have little to say since a Trump v. Clinton election in November is a foregone conclusion.  It is ultimately going to be decided squeaky wheel gets the grease.  Each major party has selected the worst possible choices.  Hilary Clinton appears to be the lesser of the two evils, but not by much.  The saving grace is she is not a neo-fascist.  She is accountable for what happened in Benghazi and not someone who will ever earn my trust.  But she does not advocate changing the Constitution and a total Muslim ban which most-likely will radicalize non-radical Muslims or bamboozling us to believe we can build a wall on the Mexican border and send Mexico the bill.  I would vote for Gary Johnson if and only if I believed either he had a chance to win or if it was an indirect Hilary Clinton vote vies-a-vie the Teddy Roosevelt Bull-Moose effect.  But it also gives the Never Trump coalition two anti-Trump choices which could allow the Trump supporters to win by default with 34%.

It is too late in the game to change the way things are with respect to the respective parties’ conventions, but if the Republican Party is going to once again be the party of Lincoln, Reagan, and Teddy Roosevelt, it has to get past Donald Trump, either this year or in 2020, and reintroduce its constituency to candidates like Lincoln, Reagan, Teddy Roosevelt, and Barry Goldwater, the latter of whom never served as U.S. President.

The thing to watch out for at the RNC is playing on the emotions, rather than the intellect of the voters.  Bringing people on-stage like a woman whose son was killed in Benghazi and Clinton belongs in prison in vertical stripes.  I understand exactly how she feels, but Trump is no better and is using white supremacist groups as a springboard to his evil.  Trump too, should be in jail for the Trump University scam.  And a Trump presidency will only divide this nation more and more.

The best advice I can give is show up at the polls no matter what.  Although I do not condone voting for nobody for president, at least vote the congressional ballot.  There is plenty of time to have an epiphany and decide between Trump, Clinton, and Gary Johnson and if it is determined that the lesser of the evils is to bite the bullet, elect Clinton, and strive for a Lincoln-Reagan Republican in 2020, [we] can load up both houses of Congress with Republican conservatives and keep her in check for four years.

This is the first time in my lifetime American Democracy has truly been on trial and we are obligated to give it a fair one.

American-Flag1There won’t be a Republican Party as we know it if he gets elected president.  We do not stand for what he stands for.  You don’t take to a podium and say if someone in the night club had an assault rifle and shot the shooter between the eyes—that would be a beautiful site…There are limits!  I believe in the 2nd Amendment but I do not believe all forms of gun control are detrimental to 2nd Amendment rights.  I am not even saying it is wrong to want to take a shooter out before he kills as many as Sandy Hook or Orlando but it is wrong to speak and create imagery that if we did it we would be proud of it.  The mentality of arming people who you would not think to arm in the past in case of such a situation may have evolved into a necessary evil, but if and when it comes to that, I will never hold my head up high and call it a victory.  Americans, and people in general coming together and eradicating the necessity for such punitive actions is the victory we seek.  When we accept our role in God’s world that live our lives as sojourners to the city of Zion; when The Great Ronald Reagan spoke of the shining city on the hill, that was a metaphor for Zion and that was the journey Reagan wanted all Americans to pursue collectively.

If Satan can take on many forms, Donald J. Trump is the form The United States of America is plagued with right now.  My Republican stomach is in knots blurting it out, but a vote for Trump is a vote for Satan and the locusts are not far.  Less than one percent of American-born Muslims are radicalized, but if you do it the Trump way and ban then just because they are Muslims, that is the easiest way to radicalize a large number of them.  No American-born Muslim has ever done me any harm.  In the off-season, I ride the Waterbury-branch train with a gentleman who wears a turban and practices Islam and although I do not know his name, we have good conversation on the train and nobody riding the train gives him a hard time.  The Trump persona makes absolutely no sense to me and America is about to lose all of its sense and sensibility if it goes the Trump route.

At this time, I am not endorsing any candidate for President but I know who I absolutely will not endorse and will not vote for this November.    

American-Flag1It is now a foregone conclusion that the November election will be Trump v. Clinton.  There is no sign of a third party candidate entering the race but Libertarian Gary Johnson is making some noise about wanting to be part of the debates this coming fall.  The Lincoln-Teddy Roosevelt-Reagan GOP establishment that defined the Republican Party founded in Ripon, Wisconsin in 1854 has been defeated and the party constituency is now defined by Donald Trump and his giddy supporters who either want to defeat the establishment for good or want a Noveau-Republican victory in November even if it is Trump for reasons such as ensuring a conservative is appointed to the Supreme Court, like the “Wall Talk,” the Muslim ban, and other bigoted ideas that spew from The Donald’s mouth that roars.  Not to mention, for the first time in the history of this country, you have two candidates representing each major party who may be criminally indicted; the private server emails and those ripped off in Trump University.

Will voting for Gary Johnson (Libertarian) solve the problem?  As for what I know right now, Mr. Johnson is the penultimate “mental floss” disillusioned established Republicans like me have available to us at the present time.  His four biggest assets are (1) he is not Hillary Clinton, (2) he is not Donald Trump, (3) he is a limited government person, and (4) he is on the ballot in all fifty states.  Number four is very important because voting the Libertarian line is very different than writing in an outsider.  In a gubernatorial, congressional, or mayoral or other local election, while votes for Mickey Mouse are discarded as “non-votes,” writing in the name of a real person will register as one vote for that person.  But due to the   Electoral College, a vote for Ted Cruz is a vote for Mickey Mouse if Cruz has no assigned set of electors in that respective state.  The two mitigating factors are (1) does he have any chance in Hell to acquire 270 electoral votes, or at least deny both Trump and Clinton 270 and let the House of Representatives decide?  And (2) if he is the twenty-first century Bull-Moose, which candidate will he take votes away from and therefore, which candidate will win by default with a plurality of popular votes?

Looking first at tradition, with the Republican Party known for supporting limited government and states’ rights, one would think the Republican vote would be split between Trump and Johnson and Hillary would get the gold ring.  But one would have to assume the Republican establishment is not completely dead.  With Trump dominating the party and with not enough evidence to support Trump is truly a conservative, Johnson, though no fault of his, could cause a divide among establishment vs. non-establishment.  Though Hillary Clinton is the first woman to be the prospective nominee of a major party, she does represent the establishment by default.  Trump has never been a politician and the Libertarian Party has never been established as a major party in the U.S.  Hillary served in the Senate and as Secretary of State and is familiar with Washington.  Another teaspoon of medicine hard for conservatives and former establishment Republican conservatives to swallow is Gary Johnson, although a good fiscal conservative, shows a hint of social liberalism in that he is pro-choice.  Though the opportunistic Trump has not been firm about it, he will inevitably identify himself as a pro-life candidate to keep “former” establishment Republicans who ate the crow and are backing Trump not to tarry into Libertarian waters not tested for liberal impurities.  On the other hand, the death of the Grand Old Party as we know it and the Tea Party staying dormant, a new breed of “anti-Democrat” who is socially liberal and fiscally conservative could make it past the embryonic state.  When the Republican conservative establishment was alive and well and the Tea Party was vocal at being the buffer faction preserving conservative values in mainstream Republicans desiring to be elected to office at least nationally, a pro-choice Republican had no chance.  But while the Trump factor will keep the centrifuge spinning until Election Day, the chemical make-up of the new American political philosophy is still an unknown.  Barring an unlikely Libertarian victory in November and especially if Trump is defeated by Mrs. Clinton, there is a high probability of a merger and acquisition, as it were of the Libertarian Party and the anti-Trump factions of the Republicans.

Undoubtedly, in 1912, a vote for Teddy Roosevelt was a vote for Woodrow Wilson.  George Wallace’s candidacy in 1968 probably had an impact on the Nixon victory although Nixon did get more than fifty percent of the popular vote because Richard Nixon was considered a progressive Republican and now defunct Dixi-crat faction of the Democrats more conservative than most Republicans divided Democrats between Hubert Humphrey and Wallace who did win the electoral votes in Mississippi and his home state of Alabama.  In 1980, John Anderson most-likely helped Ronald Reagan, but we will never know for sure.  After the failed rescue mission where a helicopter was shot down in Iran to bring our hostages home, Jimmy Carter was done anyway and although not as big a victory in 1894, Reagan got a lion’s share of the popular vote in 1980 as well.  H. Ross Perot took votes away from George H.W. Bush in 1992 as expected since Perot is a multi-billionaire and wealthy Americans.  Bush-41 was on top of the world after Desert Storm liberated Kuwait from Saddam Hussein’s invasion but broke his “read my lips” promise and the economy tanked so again, did Bill Clinton really need help from Perot?  This year, there is no incumbent.  There are no incumbent faux-pas to correct and there are no incumbent good deeds to reward.  Assuming the candidacy is strong enough, which way would Gary Johnson divide the nation?  Right now you can flip a coin.

As far as we know, Gary Johnson is clean with respect to the law and ethics violations.  There is no danger of an indictment against Mr. Johnson; at least none to which we are cognitive.  At the present time, if you need a reason to vote for Gary Johnson, that would be it.  Though not a big chance, he would have a chance to win the presidency if the American people showed up at the polls in favor of ethics and respect for the law.  Unfortunately, few voters have ever voted solely on moral principles.  As of right now, I would say support Gary Johnson if and only if you believe he has a realistic chance of winning.  If you are simply looking for a candidate to vote for to stop Trump without voting for Hillary, it is too early to draw any conclusion as to which way the Bull-Moose divide will be directed.  That could change as the campaigns progress but for now, I would hold off on voting below Row B.  I would urge everyone to show up at the polls, even if you don’t vote for president, to vote the congressional ballot as we are in a critical turning point for what policy and policies will shape the United States of America as we move deeper into the twenty-first century.

American-Flag1All things are possible and that is why you run the race.  Unfortunately, the odds of Bernie Sanders overtaking Hillary Clinton of the Democrat party  nomination are slightly higher than a third party candidate acquiring two-hundred seventy electoral votes and defeating both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton (or Bernie Sanders).

Teddy Roosevelt was one of the greatest presidents in the history of the United States.  After choosing to yield to William Howard Taft in 1908 by not running for re-election, then disappointed in Mr. Taft, created the Bull-Moose party in 1912 attempting to regain the White House.  The result was splitting the Republican vote between Roosevelt and Taft allowing Woodrow Wilson (D) to have a plurality of the popular vote and the required number of electoral votes in the then forty-eight state union to become president.  Seems to me if Teddy couldn’t do it, nobody can.

Continuing on that train of thought with respect to the Electoral College, even if this third party does endear enough voters disgusted with both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump and actually win a majority of the popular vote, it is the electoral vote tally that counts.  As rare as it is for a U.S. president to get elected without winning the popular vote, it has happened.  Examples include John Quincy Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes (his fraudulency), Benjamin Harrison, and George W. Bush.  If the bible-belt and Dixie are going to go predictably red while California and the northeast predictably blue, that leaves a small number of states with a small electorate where the third party candidate has a slim chance of winning a majority and picking up the EVs; two-hundred seventy is still not practical.

The only back door to a third party winning the presidency under the current system is for the third party candidate to pick up some electoral votes and prevent either Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton from achieving two-hundred seventy sending the election to the House of Representatives.  Only once in the history of this country has the HR selected a president and that was a different set of circumstances.  In 1800, Democratic-Republican candidates Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr defeated Federalist candidate John Adams and a few also ran.  Back then, there was no ticket with a president and vice president and the vice presidency went to the candidate who finished in second place (John Adams, the second president served as George Washington’s VP and Thomas Jefferson, the third president served under John Adams).  The HR needed to break a deadlock to determine between Jefferson and Burr who would be president and who would be vice president; of course it was Jefferson.  The HR has never selected a president across party lines in the nation’s history.  In addition, if it were to happen that way, it would be postponed until after January 3rd when the new congress is sworn in and the new HR would be selecting.  If the Democrats regain control of the House, it will most-likely go to Hillary Clinton albeit it is not the best of four-hundred thirty-five, but each state must agree on one vote for the best of fifty states.  The Republicans would have to keep control of the House and there would have to be enough anti-Trump Republican congressmen and moreover, enough anti-Trump red states involved in the process.  I won’t say your chances of winning Powerball are better, but your chances of betting on the horse with the worst odds, i.e. the greatest long-shot, in the fifth at Belmont are greater than betting on this scenario and betting on a third-party president sworn in on January 20, 2017.

American-Flag1Alexis de Tocqueville, a French philosopher made this statement in 1840 in his work Democracy in America.  The words reign loud and true today as America will celebrate its two-hundred fortieth birthday this July 4.  Reviving de Tocqueville is a reflex response to the Trump candidacy and his slogan Make America Great Again.  The problem is Donald Trump does not understand the origin of America’s greatness.

Let me begin by saying The United States of America was never a great nation according to the worldly definition which is more suitable towards the great empires that reigned eons before the U.S.A. was a gleam in anyone’s eyes.  George Washington, our first president, professed isolationism and no permanent alliances.  He was not wrong in the late eighteenth century, it is just that the world changed a lot since then forcing us to compete economically and defend against modern day tyrants with long range and nuclear weapons.  We are the greatest country in the world because we no other is any better.  This is not to say we are the only good nation; no nation is any better because no nation is any freer.  Freedom is our most precious commodity and the tyrannical Donald Trump will take a good portion of it away.  He wants to rewrite the First Amendment guaranteeing us free speech, freedom of religion, freedom of the press, and the right to petition and assemble.  I have been a Republican conservative since I was old enough to vote but I cannot support Donald J. Trump.

Talk show host Sean Hannity acknowledges how people like me feel about Trump but swears up and down we would feel the same way about Ted Cruz.  Not so.  Cruz is a constitutionalist and would have made executive decisions only if they would be constitutional.  You could argue he is a different type of insurgence, but he is who he is and would allow the establishment to continue to be the establishment and the onus would be on him to sell his ideas.  Trump is a very different beast who has never held public office in his life.  His appeal is that he is not a career politician; he is a beast far worse.  Many of my fellow Republicans did not take his candidacy seriously and were sure he would ride off into the sunset and someone else, Cruz, Rubio, or Kasich would be in slot one.  Now that Mr. Trump is the presumptive nominee, the Republican Party is fighting for its conservative life, facing an unwelcomed overhaul with Trump being the new establishment.  For now, establishment and grassroots Republicans are taking a very reserved approach to supporting him and I hope they hold their ground.  But the Republican Party dilemma is not the worst of it; American Democracy is fighting for its life.  It is beyond the dangers of socialism and left-wing politics.  It is beyond Hillary Clinton’s emails and Benghazi and the war on ISIS.  It is beyond whether to clear the way for Merrick Garland to be confirmed to replace the late Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court or let the new president select.  It is about whether or not we will maintain our fundamental freedoms and continue to foster a government of the people, by the people, and for the people.

I am not prepared to answer as to whether I will bite the bullet and vote for Hillary Clinton and hope conservatism can be reborn four years later, or do a write-in in protest of the two choices.  I will definitely show up at the polls on election day in November to vote the congressional ballot and in so far as writing in a name of a person with no assigned set of electors in the state is no different from writing in Mickey Mouse, I probably will not leave the first column (President) blank.  My penultimate admonishment is whatever you do, don’t sell out to Trump.

 

Republican ElephantMy fellow Americans, May 4, 2016, a day that will live in infamy with respect to American Democracy, has seen and experienced the cataclysmic fall of the nation’s most powerful and influential conservative voice, a voice spoken softly and echoed loudly in its finest Americans like Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, and Ronald Reagan; the half of our two-party system affectionately known as the Grand Old Party.

Perhaps a fitting tribute as the Ringling Brothers Circus, the largest traveling circus in the United States, is going to stop using elephants to support a more humane treatment of our long-nosed pachyderm friends, the party symbolized by the red, white, and blue elephant first introduced by cartoonist Thomas Nast has lost its establishment base and is now symbolized by the orange comb-over of the odious and irreprehensible Donald J. Trump.

Both Ted Cruz and John Kasich have bailed within twenty-four hours of Trump’s victory in Indiana.  Now we can only turn to our rivals on the liberal side to defeat this neo-fascist and save our republic.  In chess, it is referred to as a gambit, when you sacrifice a power piece, a bishop, a rook, or your queen for better board position or to free up a square to checkmate the opponent.  In order for the Republican Party to be re-established as both the conservative party and a dominant force in American politics supporting the ideology needed to bring back opportunities and the American Dream, it must sacrifice the 2016 presidential election, allow Hillary to have her day in the sun as the first woman president, and pray for the nation and the Republican Party that it can be both viable and integral in the next decade.

This drastically reduces our margin for error and success as I believe the next ten years (2016 – 2025) is America’s Last Stand.  Though Bernie Sanders will be retired from public life, his socialist utopia albeit not the kind of socialism one hash mark right of communism will become reality in America by 2025 with no external forces to prevent it.  With the political continuum circular and both radicals and radical rightists meeting at the one fringe at the back of the circle, Trump fascism is not the answer and Trump is a tyrant who will stop at noting even to defy the Constitution and so many supporters wanting him to do whatever it takes to fix America (i.e. turn it into his Hell on Earth), an Article V Convention of States cannot be dismissed to propose an new constitution which may not contain our inalienable rights.  If you want to preserve free enterprise, states’ rights, a land of opportunity not entitlements, and above all, a government of the people, by the people, and for the people, we need a real honest a God Republican conservative in the spirit of Ronald Reagan (not Donald Trump) in 2020.  We are on a shaky precipice and our only viable move is a gambit.

The Republican establishment is dead and needs to be reborn in the spirit of Ronald Reagan, Barry Goldwater, and the grass-roots working class citizens (typically Democrats) who in 1980, voted Republican for a change as the slogan went.  Donald J. Trump is NOT a Republican; he is a fascist wearing a Republican suit.  The Republican Party now must shift to rebuilding the conservative voice and restoring to its lofty status as the party of the people who believe America was established to be the greatest country in the world; because in order to be the greatest again, it needs the people in the party who understand.

Republican Elephant04.26.2016 is finally here and I arrived at my polling place at the Quaker Farms School in Oxford, Connecticut and cast my ballot for Ted Cruz.  Trump is favored to win in the Nutmeg State; luckily Connecticut is not a “winner take all” state and every delegate that does not go to Donald Trump will be integral in stopping his evil.  Unfortunately for Cruz, Connecticut is too close to New York and with his caustic remarks on New York values, he will likely finish in third place here.

I have my doubts about the Cruz-Kasich “collusion” as it were.  I give them credit for trying but with both candidates needing more than one-hundred percent of the remaining delegates, the goal for both men is now a contested convention.  I am now on board with a contested convention.  But the one we do not want to see get nominated, none other than Donald J. Trump, can still acquire 1,237 delegates before July in Cleveland, guaranteeing him the nomination.  Though Richard Milhous Nixon is to this day considered the most corrupt politician in modern history, he was for all intents and purposes, and intelligent man.  The Nixon Axiom of American Politics states, if there is a movement to get rid of X, bet on X.  Presidential candidates have teamed up in this manner in the past to halt a frontrunner, but they were never this open about it disclosing their intention to the public.  I suppose with the media today, people would find out anyway.

I still think the better plan would have been for Kasich to drop out leaving Ted Cruz the only Trump alternative on the ballot ensuring him over fifty percent in most states (not New York).  As long as the anti-Trump vote is split two ways, Trump wins by default.  It is the simple Teddy Roosevelt Bull-Moose scenario in 1912 that resulted in the Republican vote split between Roosevelt and Taft and Woodrow Wilson winning the presidency with less than half of the popular vote.  Bill Clinton capitalized on this as well in 1992 with the Republican vote split between George H.W. Bush and H. Ross Perot.

I voted for Ted Cruz for two reasons; I think he is the only true conservative running and in a contested convention with Rule 40(b) in effect for the second and third ballot (barring a change in the rules on July 18 which is possible), Trump and Cruz are the only viable candidates.  No nominee after three ballots, 40(b) is out the window and anything goes.  I stand by my vote and pray the Republican Party does not divide due to Trump vs. The Establishment.  The die is cast.  Now we await the results.

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